Enforcement data from Brazil and the Netherlands demonstrates that government crackdowns on legal vaping fail to suppress consumer demand, instead fueling illicit supply chains. Speaking at the GFN26 conference, harm reduction experts Alex Wodak and Ian Fearon warned that eliminating legal, regulated nicotine products pushes consumers directly into the hands of unregulated black-market sellers.
The evidence from both countries highlights the core challenge facing tobacco control: when governments restrict legal alternatives while nicotine demand remains steady, consumers do not stop using the products—they simply change where they buy them.
Brazil's Prohibition Eliminates Regulation, Not Vaping
Brazil has prohibited the manufacturing, importation, sale, distribution, and advertising of electronic cigarettes since 2009, a policy reaffirmed by the health regulator Anvisa in 2024. While commercial sales are banned, personal possession and use remain legal. Despite 15 years of prohibition, vaping continues across the country.
Rather than ending vape use, the ban has created a massive black market. Brazilian police routinely seize illicit vapes alongside other contraband goods. Because legal retail channels do not exist, the entire supply chain has been handed over to criminal enterprises.
This dynamic removes essential consumer protection mechanisms that governments typically deploy, such as:
- Mandatory manufacturing and safety standards
- Ingredient disclosure and chemical testing
- Retail licensing and tax collection
- Enforceable age-verification checks at retail checkouts
Public debate in Brazil often focuses on observational studies linking vapes to health risks, yet these studies often struggle to separate vaping from prior smoking histories, diet, and lifestyle factors. As noted in the latest Cochrane living review, high-certainty evidence shows that nicotine e-cigarettes achieve higher smoking quit rates than standard nicotine replacement therapy, underscoring the role of relative risk reduction for adult smokers.
Dutch Restrictions Push Nicotine Trade to Social Media
The Netherlands provides a parallel example of regulatory restrictions driving consumers underground. While adult vaping remains legal, the Dutch government banned online sales in July 2023 and prohibited non-tobacco e-liquid flavors in January 2024.
Official enforcement data reveals that the market adapted immediately. The Dutch Food and Consumer Product Safety Authority (NVWA) recorded 1,868 social media violations in 2024, noting that illicit trade rapidly migrated from storefronts to private messaging apps and social platforms.
| Country | Regulatory Approach | Observed Market Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Brazil | Total sales and import ban since 2009 (reconfirmed 2024) | Vaping persists; 100% of product supply controlled by contraband networks |
| The Netherlands | Bans on online sales (2023) and non-tobacco flavors (2024) | 42% violation rate in targeted retail checks; sales shifted to social media |
Between July 2024 and July 2025, Dutch inspectors identified flavor-ban violations in 291 out of 701 targeted retail inspections—a 42% non-compliance rate. Authorities also ordered the removal of 619 social media advertisements and 111 sales platform listings, while another platform took down 1,434 listings following regulatory orders.
The Youth Protection Paradox
While Dutch flavor restrictions were intended to reduce appeal among youth, shifting sales to social media creates new enforcement obstacles. The NVWA acknowledged that identifying anonymous account operators on social platforms is difficult, meaning enforcement often ends with taking down posts rather than prosecuting vendors.
Licensed storefronts can be inspected, penalized, and forced to verify customer identification. In contrast, anonymous online sellers operate without age checks or quality standards. As experts noted at GFN26, sensible regulations—such as strict age verification, packaging controls, and product standards—allow governments to protect minors while maintaining regulated access for adult smokers seeking harm reduction options.
Ian Fearon questioned whether health agencies evaluate harm reduction evidence objectively, pointing out that research supporting prohibitionist policies often receives priority over data showing the benefits of regulated alternatives.
Focusing on Health Outcomes Over Product Bans
The policy outcomes in Brazil and the Netherlands indicate that removing products from legal shelves does not erase consumer demand. Public health success relies on measurable declines in cigarette smoking and related diseases, rather than the volume of products seized by law enforcement.
Governments face a direct choice: establish regulated markets that enforce age limits and manufacturing quality, or maintain prohibition policies that divert the nicotine trade into unmonitored channels.
