A new study, drawing on 25 years of data on New Zealand teenagers, has challenged the notion that vaping displaces smoking among young people. The research, conducted by Cancer Council NSW, the University of Sydney's Daffodil Centre, and the University of Auckland, suggests that the introduction of e-cigarettes may have actually slowed progress in reducing adolescent smoking rates.
The study, published in the Lancet Regional Health—Western Pacific, examined the potential impact of vaping on smoking trends among nearly 700,000 students aged 14 to 15 years old (Year 10) over a 25-year period. University of Auckland research fellow Dr Lucy Hardie, from the School of Population Health, notes that youth smoking rates in New Zealand were declining steeply before vapes entered the market in 2010, but that progress has since slowed.
In 2023, approximately 12.6 percent of 14 to 15-year-old students in New Zealand had ever smoked, nearly double the 6.6 percent predicted based on pre-vaping era trends. Similarly, around 3 percent of students were smoking regularly in 2023, compared to the projected 1.8 percent had the pre-vaping trend continued.
These findings contradict an earlier influential study from 2020, published in the Lancet Public Health, which suggested that vaping might be displacing smoking among New Zealand youth. The new study, however, draws on a much wider time period, providing a more comprehensive analysis of the long-term trends.
Sam Egger, a statistician at the Daffodil Centre for research on cancer control and policy, highlights the alarming increase in daily vaping among New Zealand adolescents, with prevalence rising from 1.1 percent in 2015 to 10 percent in 2023 – a nine-fold increase over eight years.
Dr Hardie emphasizes the need for a stronger response to youth vaping, stating that New Zealand's current policy settings are too lenient. "Vapes are addictive, appealing, and easily accessible to young people. The high rates of use indicate vaping is normalized within New Zealand youth culture, which may influence experimentation with other nicotine products, such as smoking," she explains.
The study's findings have significant implications for tobacco control policies in New Zealand. Dr Hardie expresses concern over the repeal of effective smoking reduction policies, such as the smoke-free generation, in 2023. She argues that the current approach, which seemingly relies on vaping and other nicotine products, may not be the silver bullet hoped for in reducing smoking rates among young people.
As policymakers and public health professionals grapple with the complex challenges posed by the rise of vaping, this study underscores the importance of ongoing research and evidence-based strategies to effectively combat tobacco use and protect the health of future generations.
